The 2018 Forth Quarterly Review of Employment in China Was Held Successfully in RUC

January 11, 2019, 2018 Forth Quarterly Review of Employment in China was successfully held by China Institute for Employment Research(CIER) at Room 347 in Qiushi Buiding, Renmin University of China. Yin Jiankun, Deputy Director of Employment Promotion Department, National Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Jia Liuhui, Division Chief of Department of population and employment statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, Li Qiang, Senior Marketing Director of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Zhang Xiaoguang, Assistant General Manager of Human Resources Research and Development Center in Suzhou Industrial Park, Cao Kunkun, Senior Researcher of Industrial Policy Department of Tencent, Weng Hang, Researcher of Industrial Policy Department of Tencent, Zhang Lingxiao, Senior Expert of Alibaba Research Institute, Xian Weihua, Researcher of Didi Research Institute, Wang Benxi, Researcher of Didi Research Institute, Liu Lei, Manager of Government Affairs Department, 58.com, Shen Yue, Chief Administrative Officer of 51haohuo.com, Tang Lei Senior Research Manager of Liepin.com, Professor Zeng Xiangquan, former Dean of School of Labor and Human Resources (SLHR), Renmin University of China and Director of China Institute for Employment Research (CIER), Ding Djian, Researcher of CIER, Geng Lin, Researcher of CIER, more than 30 experts and scholars from various universities, including Renmin University of China, Beijing Normal University, China Institute of Industrial relations, Beijing Forestry University , Capital University of Economics and Business, participated in the meeting, which was hosted by Wang Fei, Associate Researcher of CIER and Assistant Professor of SLHR.

In the theme report statement, Associate Professor Geng Lin a keynote report entitled “Analysis of Employment Situation in the Fourth Quarter of 2018 —Based on Zhaolian Big Data”. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the CIER index showed a seasonal rebound. The number of applicants increased by 3.90%, while the demand of employment from enterprises increased significantly, with a growth rate of 25.42%. The CIER index rose to 2.38, but lower than the same period last year (2.91). Judging from the employment situation in 2018, the employment situation was generally weaker than 2017. For industries, compared with 2017, the degree of polarization among industries declined. The rankings of education / training / institutions industries rose to the top, following by intermediary service. The hiring demand from Internet / E-commerce industries increased by 35.50% and the CIER index rose to the third place. Nevertheless, the employment situation of aviation / aerospace research and manufacturing industries was still the worst, and as for energy / mineral / extraction / smelting, printing / packaging / paper, electrical / electricity / water conservancy, environmental protection industries, the employment situation was not optimistic as well. Similarly, the occupations with higher CIER index in the fourth quarter of 2018 were technicians / operators, education / training, sales, community / resident / housekeeping services, whereas those with low CIER index were senior management, public relations / media, project management / project coordination and sales administration / business. Meanwhile, in terms of regions, the CIER index in the fourth quarter of 2018 kept decreasing from the eastern, central, western, to northeastern regions, with various supply and demand relationships of the labor market in different regions. From the city perspective, the CIER index showed an increasing trend in the first, new first, second and third tier cities. In terms of enterprise scale, the employment situation of large and medium-sized enterprises in this quarter was relatively good, contrasted with small and micro enterprises. The report predicted that the CIER index (periodic component) in the first quarter of 2019 would continue the downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2017. Since the cycle factor was lower than the same period last year, it’s highly likely that the CIER index would also decrease.

Assistant General Manager, Zhang Xiaoguang, delivered a speech entitled " Report on Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the Fourth Quarter of 2018". The report analyzed human resources index and relative data from Suzhou Industrial Park, introduced the condition of “Zhao Cai Yin Zhi” Campus Recruitment and the salary investigation of key industries in Suzhou, and predicted the supply and demand in the Labor market of Suzhou Industrial Park in 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the demand for labor market in Suzhou Industrial Park remained strong, while the supply continued to decline. The shortage of supply led to the extension of the recruitment cycle and increasing the difficulty of recruitment, causing a further aggravated employing pressure. According to the investigation of employment intentions of college graduates and the recruitment needs of enterprises in the park, most students chose to continue their studies after graduation. At the same time, the dreaming salary level from both sides was hard to match with widening gap. In addition, the Internet industry (45%) was the most popular choice among graduates. The results of the 2018 Salary and Benefits Investigation of Key Industries in Suzhou showed that the automotive / aviation industry presented a relatively strong salary increase. In 2018, the overall turnover rate in Suzhou increased by 10.8% compared with 2017, and the turnover rate of primary jobs increased the most. In 2019, the structural contradiction between labor supply and demand was prominent, and enterprises remained cautiously optimistic for development. It’s forecast that in 2019 salary would increase by 7.00%, approximately the same level as 2018.

Tang Lei, Senior Research Manager of Liepin.com, introduced the basic situation of the “Report of Recruitment Trend in the First Quarter of 2019”. The report analyzed from multiple perspectives including the recruitment amount, job type, channel changes, turnover rates, and quarterly recruitment plans. Global Career Development Center of Liepin.com (GCDC) chose a stratified sampling method to investigate 1,200 enterprises across the country, predicting that the recruitment plan for the first quarter of 2019 would show a downward trend year-on-year, but slightly increase compared with the fourth quarter in 2018. The recruitment demand in the fields of consumption goods, machinery manufacturing, Internet, real estate and financial sectors was expected to grow moderately. The employment demand decreased in the order of technical, business, operational, market, and administrative positions. Online had become the most common channel among all forms of recruitment. The primary recruitment difficulty in all regions was always the lack of resumes. Simultaneously, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the turnover rate of candidates was significantly lower than that in the third quarter of 2018.

During the keynote speech and the discussion section, the leaders and experts conducted the extensive and in-depth discussions on the fourth quarter employment situations and the future development trends.

Yin Jiankun, Deputy Director of Employment Promotion Department, National Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and Jia Liuhui, Division Chief of Department of population and employment statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, made excellent commented and analyzed those above reports on the basis of relevant works.

Li Qiang, Senior Marketing Director of Zhilian Zhao Pin, shared several sets of data worthy of attention as reference. Since September, the registration amount of new enterprises had continued decreasing, while the cancellation amount had kept rising since July. Noticeably, in terms of quantity, the registration amount was less than the cancellation. Through relevant investigation, companies had stable confidence for 2019 and data showed that in December the amount of people concerning about other opportunities both increased compared with November, 2018 and December 2017.

Cao Kunkun, Senior Researcher of Industrial Policy Department of Tencent, introduced the employment effect of new business, taken WeChat as an example. It’s found that the employment related to the WeChat business chain continued growing, generating various new types of employment. More and more people worked with considerable income surrounding the WeChat public platform, small programs, self-media, e-commerce, etc.

Zhang Lingxiao, Senior Expert of Alibaba Research Institute, also shared his opinions. In the large-scale tax reduction policy, the central government changed the threshold for small and micro enterprises from 30,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan per month, which was regarded as a big positive news. It’s obvious that stable, market-compliant, and effective policies was very important to mobilize the enthusiasm of market innovation and entrepreneurship. Nowadays, China's employment structure was facing a great change and policy needed to play a guiding role to cushion the impact of the digital economy on employment.

Liu Lei, Manager of Government Affairs Department, 58.com Manager, put forward her thinking based on their dat. In the first half of 2018, the national recruitment demand maintained a growth trend, while declining month-on-month after August. In 2018, Chinese blue-collar workers got 5000-5500 (yuan) salary in average, increased by less than 10%. And in 2019, the growth rate of labor demand was expected to slow down. Influenced by internet company expansion and traditional business shrink, people would have more various and diversified channels to be employed.

Shen Yue, Chief Administrative Officer of 51haohuo.com, introduced the flexible employment innovation and operational data based on 51haohuo.com. He proposed that 51haohuo.com provided a new way of social security for flexible workers in the new industries. At the same time, the shared economic enterprises assisted government to jointly built a big data collaborative supervision platform, where both sides of the flexible employment could be included in the supervision and therefore, enjoy the social security service and benefits.

Ding Djian, Researcher of CIER, shared his opinions. He believed that the stable CIER index could reflect the economic and employment situation well and it was also essential to find out the regularity for further research.

Finally, Zeng Xiangquan, Director of China Institute for Employment Research (CIER) made a summary of the seminar, and shared his opinions about the considerable issues. He argued that China's employment situation should be considered from both subjective information and objective data perspectives. Nowadays, supply was the most important influential factor of Chinese economy and labor market. It could be noticed that the speed of Chinese economic growth was beginning to be influenced by the labor market and the structural contradictions continued strengthening. In order to achieve the upgrading of industrial structure, the sufficient flow and transfer of human resources was essential and necessary. He sincerely thanked to all walks of life for their great support and assistance to the CIER. He hoped that all kinds of current major issues in Chinese market can be deeply discussed through this platform and make more achievements in the future.