|
On October 14, 2012,CIER successfully held 2012 Third Quarterly Review of China Employment at Room 347 of Qiushi Building，RUC.Deputy Director of Department of Employment and Income Distribution, National Development and Reform Commission Hu
Deqiao, Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Yin Jiankun, Deputy Director and Division Chief of
Department of Population and Employment Statistics Peng Yongtao and Zhang Zhibin,Assistant Researcher from Research Institute
of Social Development, National Ministry of Development and Research Central Zhang Bingzi, VP of Zhilian Zhaopin Liu Zhiqiang
Product Operation Executive Director Hao Jian attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of SLHR and
CIER,Researcher Ding Dajian, and other research staff Zhao Zhong,Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Zhao Liqiu,Zhang Wei,Cui Yuxue,Hao
Yuming,Yang Yumei also participated in the meeting. The meeting was chaired by Professor Tang Kuang, Deputy Secretary of
Party of SLHR, RUC and Deputy Director of CIER.
Seminar Scene Professor Zeng Xiangquan
Researcher Ding Dajian, head of Data Center of SLHR, made a report entitled “The Analysis of 2012 Third-quarter Chinese Labor
Market ConditionsBased on the Data from Zhaopin.com and Suzhou Industrial Zone”. He gave a brief overview of employment situation
in the second quarter of 2012, described the online recruitment data and analysed the overall employment situation and the CIER
index changes of the third quarter of 2012, outlined the structural changes in market supply, and gave an in-depth analysis about the
employment and other situation in different industries, occupations, regions (cities) and a typical region (Suzhou Industrial Park).
The report is written by researcher Ding Dajian and Doctor Cui Yuxue. The main conclusions in the report are: (1) In the third quarter,
the CIER Index continued to fall compared with the second quarter but was lower than the same time last year.(2) Compared with the second quarter, applicants descending slightly while the recruiting demand rapidly, resulting in the substantially decline of index
in link relative ratio. But compared with last year, the applicants number grew slower than the recruiting demand, leading to lower
CIER index.(3) In the second quarter, college graduates descended in relative ratio,Turnover staff proportion increased slightly.
4) The vast majority of the industry competition in the employment of sequentially dropped. (5)From city scale, First-tier cities
pressure of employment competition is still higher than that of the second city;from region ,the employment pressure of the central
region is minimum,while the east and west region are relatively high. (6) Compared with last year, the competitive pressure of state-owned enterprises,joint stock enterprise and state organs decreased by a large margin;while the competitive pressure of
representative office rise slightly. (7)Even though million big enterprises declined most in link relative ratio,their competitive pressure
still very high. (8In this quarter, CIER index of Suzhou Industrial Zone was different from the national trend,or it can illustrate that
labor market change has particularity in the eastern developed region.
Professor Ding Dajian
Subsequently, Dr. Ge Yuhao made a report of “The Analysis of 2012 Third-quarter Chinese Employment Situation and Policies”.
The report indicated that: (1)China’s macro-economic situation of the third quarter showed a tendency of falling back,but it still keep
stable (2) Employment policies focused on market policy, payed attention to labor supply and market matching,Embodiment in
pushing for the implementation of employment priority strategy,grasped employment work of focus groups, promoted entrepreneurship
to promote employment, and strengthened the public employment services.(3)In this quarter, unemployed graduates are the focal point of employment, employment policy also pay attention to other special groups.（4)Occupation skill training has an important influence on supply side in the labor market, so, there is great practical significance on the legislation improvement of occupation
education and training.
Associate Professor Ge Yuhao
Associate researcher Geng Lin made a report entitled "Association analysis between CIER index and macroeconomic performance
targets"with the updated research results since July, 2008 till September, 2012. Conclusions are drawn by trend analysis and
correlation analysis on CIER monthly index, number of job hunters and recruiting numbers; dynamic relevance between CIER monthly
index and relevant macroeconomic indicators; predictive analysis on CIER monthly index. The correlation analysis between CIER
monthly index and PMI and the pridiction analysis showed that: (1)In fourth quarter, 2012, the CIER monthly index keeps a rising
trend for a long-term.Considering the actor of seasonal, it may rise slightly in October, and drop back in November and December. (2) There was a significant negative correlation between CIER index and macroeconomic prosperous index (coincident index and
lagging index). (3) There was a relatively significant negative correlation between CIER monthly index and the manufacturing purchasing
managers' index (PMI).
Researcher Geng Lin
After that, the Deputy Director Hu Deqiao, Yin Jiankun, Peng Yongtao, Division Chief Zhang Zhibin, VP Liu Zhiqiang, chief inspector
Hao Jian and Reasearcher Zhang Libin spoke highly of seminar for the efforts of our researchers and exchanged their own viewpoints with
the experts.
Deputy Director Hu Deqiao
Deputy Director Yin Jiankun
Deputy Director Peng Yongtao
Division Chief Zhang Zhibin
At the end, Dean Zeng made a summary that the meeting maintained pragmatic and laid foundation to further study.He said, CIER
index is consistent with the changes in the labour market. The different date of Zhilian company and Suzhou Industrial Zone is the normal manifestation of Labor market in different regions and different industries. We may not make a judgment of the economic
situation simply, and we should do a good job of the data collection and development conscientiously in differentparts. He Stressed the necessary of strengthening international exchanges,.And do the deep discussion and research of the working time and measurement
index. He gave thanks to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. He hoped that all sides would continue work together to implement the "Employment Priority Stratagy" of the
"Twelfth Five-Year Plan".
| 
China Institute for Employment Research. All rights reserved.